![]() Windstorm damage in Europe was shown not to increase after correcting for exposure increase 10 with attribution being complicated by contrasting trends in hazard 11 and very high uncertainty on vulnerability functions 12. Estimates on the value of assets in a given location (exposure) and flood vulnerability functions, which indicate the share of assets that are lost at a given intensity of flood, vary drastically between countries 6, 7, 8, 9. 5 has shown that flood protection was the biggest source of uncertainty in coastal flood risk assessments in test sites in the Iberian Peninsula. For example, flood risk in the Rhine basin was found to be least sensitive to change in atmospheric forcing, but more to changes in reservoir capacity, dike height, land use, asset value or private precautionary measures 4. Case studies have indicated strong influence of additional drivers especially for floods, where the uncertainty of the present risk is already high. However, less quantification is available for systems with strong non-climatic drivers of change 3. There is growing research that quantifies the effects of the changing climate on the world’s natural, managed and human systems 1, 2. Global mean temperature has surpassed 1 ☌ warming compared to pre-industrial times. This allows the separation of the effects of climate change from the effects of exposure change. Raster datasets generated by the model enable reconstructing exposure within the footprint of any extreme event both at the time of occurrence and anytime between 18. It consists of algorithms to reallocate baseline (2011) land use and population for any given year based on a large collection of historical subnational- and national-level statistics, and then disaggregate data on production and tangible assets by economic sector into a high-resolution grid. The HANZE v2.0 (Historical Analysis of Natural HaZards in Europe) dataset presented in this study quantifies the evolution of key socioeconomic drivers in Europe since 1870, namely land use, population, economic activity and assets. However, the effects of climate change are obscured in the observed impact data series due to the rapid evolution of the social and economic circumstances in which the events occurred. Understanding the influence of climate change on past extreme weather impacts is a vital research task.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |